CvilleDems.Org

Virgil is the Energizer Bunny of bogousity (from TPM):

Of course, the idea that China is drilling off of Cuba and our coast has been fully debunked. See here:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/40776.html

Even Dick Cheney has admitted as much:
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/06/13/cheney-admits-oil-lie/

From Tom Perriello:

I am thrilled to announce that, because of your help, we reached our $900,000 fundraising goal! For the second straight quarter, it was online donations that got us across the finish line with less than 2 hours to spare. That means we have broken district fundraising records for four straight quarters. Simply amazing. I am truly touched by so many of you digging deep to make this happen.

Pundits told us that a first-time candidate would never be able to compete with a six-time incumbent on the Appropriations Committee. Pundits told us we would never be able to raise enough money. Pundits told us that the 5th District was just too big for a new campaign. But clearly they underestimated the power of you, our amazing grassroots network.

Soon we will launch our economic revival tour throughout Southside. Your support will allow us to reach every county in the district to meet voters and get our message out. There is a tremendous hunger everywhere we go: people want leaders who will shake things up in Washington and fight for them everyday.

I have refused all corporate lobbyist money in this election, meaning I answer only to you. And I renew my pledge to work a double-shift in Congress every day to bring jobs and economic fairness back to the district.

I have long maintained there are threee keys to a Democrat capturing VA-05 (assuming, all else being equal, a good campaign, of course):

1. A great candidate. CHECK

2. Strong fundraising. CHECK

3. An overall Democratic tide generated by the top of the ticket (can’t say CHECK yet, but this is clearly in the works with Obama and Warner).

What a great candidate Tom is proving himself to be.

     I attended a public meeting recently with Del. David Toscano for an update on the General Assembly session. There were about a dozen people there.
So, before going further, I would like to thank David for taking the time to keep his constituents informed and for asking our opinions.
    As David explained, he gives each of his updating sessions a title that he hopes captures the overarching theme of the General Assembly session. This year it was, “Show Us The Money,” a reference to the challenges the General Assembly faced in connection with education and transportation.
    David went through some of the General Assembly’s successes this year, especially in the area of mental health. He also pointed out that the General Assembly was able to come with a reasonable increase in education dollars for teacher raises and pre-K. Had the Republicans had their way, David pointed out, state spending on education actually would have dropped in real terms because of how they would have changed arcane formulas that calculated per student expenditures statewide. 

    I want to touch on two areas that I found particularly interesting.
    First, many folks seemed interested in environmental issues. That may have simply been a reflection of the attendees, but my sense was that it is also an issue that is gaining traction with voters at the local level.
While government at all levels grapples with the complex competing economic, social and political interests inherent in all environmental questions, individuals have taken matters into their hands. We recycle more, or use a rain barrel, or purchase more energy-efficient appliances or automobiles – things large and small. It is not even a “think globally, act locally” approach, but rather a “think globally, act personally” one.
    Still, it is frustrating for people to take these steps only to see their neighbor refusing to do so. You may save gasoline by buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle, or changing your driving habits, but it all seems for naught when you observe a school bus idling in a parking lot for 20 minutes.
Grass-roots movements to address issues like these are great, but what I heard expressed at this meeting was a desire for government to be more involved as an organizing force in environmental issues.
    The second issue concerned, naturally enough, the economy as it manifested itself in the conflict over the transportation bill. Gov. Kaine has called the General Assembly back to Richmond next month to discuss transportation funding. He has proposed several new taxes (a sales-tax increase in NoVa and Hampton Roads, and a real estate grantor tax increase) to pay for it. The Republicans called those proposals non-starters.
    Quite apart from any rational discussion of the merits of various approaches to solving the Commonwealth’s transportation problems is the political game being played here related to the 2009 elections. Republicans do not want this session to accomplish anything on transportation. For one thing, a Democratic governor who actually uses government to accomplish something for people undercuts the entire Republican Party message.
    More basely, it doesn’t take a genius to see they are hoping to manipulate Gov. Kaine and the Democrats into proposing new taxes or other transportation funding solutions that the GOP can then demagogue in the next two election cycles, especially 2009.
    Kaine, on the other hand, has vowed that if nothing gets done, he will let people know who to blame, although it remains to be seen whether he will succeed at this.
    If no agreement is reached, then the problem is simply deferred to the 2010 General Assembly session when the next budget is written. Meanwhile, by law the money in the budget for transportation will be used first for maintenance and, if any remains, only then for new construction.
Over the long run, this will slow down economic growth in the state, first in the regions most directly affected – NoVa and Hampton Roads – but eventually throughout the entire state, since NoVa and Hampton Roads are so important to the state’s tax base. In time, Southside and Central Virginia will suffer the worst as a result of the Republican’s childish and irresponsible behavior.
    The Republican Party is unlikely to change its ways in the near future, if only because they are ideologically and paradoxically wed to a principle of government that eschews actual progressive solutions to problems if those solutions involve government. After listening to David discuss the issue, I am convinced the only answer to solving Virginia’s transportation crisis and continuing economic growth in all regions of the state is to elect more Democrats so the General Assembly can enact the programs we need.
    The difference between Democratic and Republican governance in the Commonwealth has not been of high taxes vs. low taxes, or big government vs. limited government. That is empty rhetoric robotically repeated by Gilmore, Frederick, Howell, et al., designed to fool voters, not inform them.
    The real difference between Democrats and Republicans is between good governance vs. incompetence; action vs. passivity; concern for all citizens vs. concern for the rich or the privileged few; maturity vs. childish game-playing.
    Once again, many thanks to David Toscano, both for the briefing and for the work he has done representing us in Richmond.

I had the privilege on Saturday of accompanying Tom Perriello, the Democratic challenger in the 5th District to Virgil Goode, to a couple of campaign stops, specifically the Fluvanna County Democrats Strawberry Social and the Uncle Billy Day Festival in Altavista.
I was grateful for the opportunity to see with my own eyes what is going on between Tom and the voters in Southside.
The two events cemented my conviction that Tom will beat Goode in November, especially after seeing the dedication of several of the young people working on his campaign.
The Strawberry Social was at Supervisor Marvin Moss’ home, Glen Burnie. There were some competing events in the area, so turnout was apparently less than the Fluvanna Democrats had hoped for, but the small crowd that was there was lively and enthusiastic, and gratefully able to fit in Mr. Moss’s lower level, air-conditioned great room.
Besides Tom, Creigh Deeds was there, and because the crowd was so small, I got to chat with him for a while, which was a real treat for me. Soon enough the race between Del. Brian Moran and Sen. Deeds will heat up. I’ve met Sen. Deeds a few times, and for me he embodies everything that makes me proud to be a lifelong Democrat. He is a Democrat in the best sense of the term, a Democrat in the tradition of FDR with a genuine concern and feel for the challenges faced by everyday folks, and a desire and an understanding of how to use government to address those challenges and really improve people’s lives – not just the folks able to organize into interest groups, but all people — in a tangible way.
Furthermore, I always walk away from a conversation with Sen. Deeds impressed with his honesty.
Brian Moran was scheduled to attend the event, but apparently he got stuck in Richmond, which was too bad, because I was really hoping for the opportunity to meet him. I’ve heard plenty of good things about him as well, and was hoping to be able to introduce myself and say hello.
But I was there with Tom Perriello, so let me get back to him. I don’t want to hijack my own diary.
Tom is an effective speaker. I think he is much better in this kind of informal setting than in a larger set speech. Here, in this blessedly cool room, talking about how he was going to reclaim and revive the Fifth District, he seemed to really connect with this crowd of Democrats.
The sense among this group that Tom can actually win this race, as opposed to merely fighting the good fight, was real. These were partisans, yes, but also clear-eyed political realists.
The desire for change was palatable. Outside of the several campaign staffers who were there, most of the crowd tended to be older (including me!), but everyone was stoked about the enthusiasm that they are seeing in young people this cycle and the sustainable change that portends for our country. Of course, we’ve seen young people energized before only to not show up on election day, but among these Fluvanna Democrats, hope springs eternal! The betting there (and I think it is 100% correct) is that this election, because of quality candidates on the ticket like Obama, Warner and Tom who speak to the desire for change and a new, more constructive direction for the nation, turnout will be high. The higher the turnout, obviously, the better for Tom and Virginia, if not all, Democrats this cycle.
Substantively, the contrast Tom offers to Virgil Goode is really striking: Tom talks about hope; Virgil about fear and hatred of illegal aliens and Muslims. Tom talks about changing the culture in Washington, while Virgil is part of a corrupt and ineffective Washington, DC mentality that has brought us to the brink of disaster. Tom talks about finding solutions, while Virgil talks about finding scapegoats. Tom talks humbly about faith as a foundation for a life of service, while Virgil sees faith as a rhetorical tool to demonize people and divide them. Tom is out in the District virtually every day, especially in Southside, meeting voters, working hard, listening to people. Virgil, who gets paid with out tax dollars, won’t even provide his constituents with a schedule of his activities.
“Building a fence in Mexico,” Tom points out, “won’t bring jobs to Southside.”
The discussion turned toward the importance of the African American vote in Virginia, in general, and in the Fifth District, in particular. Apparently, only about 50% of African Americans eligible to vote in the District are even registered here (I knew it was low, but not that low). And it isn’t only a Southside phenomenon, but exists in Charlottesville and Albemarle as well.
The thinking is that Obama’s nomination will help with this, both in terms of exciting African American voters to want to register and vote for our historic nominee, but also because Obama’s ground game will be helping to register as many voters as possible.
Tom also spoke about his organizing effort, especially his Fellows for Common Good Summer program in which he has trained 15 volunteer college students to fan out across the District. Tom’s campaign now has offices in Bedford, Martinsville, Smith Mountain Lake, Danville, Farmville and Charlottesville. (Some more on the Fellows I met, below).
Before leaving Fluvanna, I would like to say a word about Supervisor Marvin Moss and his very interesting historical home. It was built in 1826 and is on the National Register of Historical Places. Mr. Moss was a gracious host in showing me and several other guests around, discussing his period furniture and artwork, not to mention wall paint that costs $150 a gallon. Imagine being able to stroll around Monticello freely as guest of the owner, not a sightseer, and you can get an idea of what it felt like. If you like being able to see, feel and touch history, as well as read about it, like I do, it was a real treat.
Our nest stop was about 2 hours south at the Uncle Billy’s Day festival in Altavista. The Perriello campaign had a tent set up there where they were raffling off $50 of free gas. It was the only political tent at the event. Perriello stickers were a big hit with the kids passing by (in keeping with Tom’s faith-based approach – see Isaiah 11:6)
By the way, did I mention it was hot?
As we passed a bank in Altavista, it had one of those electronic clock and thermometers out front showing the temperature was 102 degrees. I think it was using a Fahrenheit scale, but I’m honestly not certain – it could have been Celsius. There was barely a perceptible breeze.
We were drenched in sweat just from the short walk to the fairground from the parking area.
Which leads me to the most impressive thing I saw all day. I cannot say enough about the three Perriello staffers I met at the Uncle Billy’s Day Festival who manned this tent ALL day. Drew Lumpkin, Tom’s Western coordinator, headed up the team, and he was accompanied by two Common Good Fellows, Jesse, who goes to Swarthmore, and Meredith, a rising third year at UVA.
Drew, Jesse and Meredith had working all day out in the hot sun, and as you can imagine, they too were drenched in sweat. It was miserable. Somehow, these three folks maintained their enthusiasm for Tom and good humor for their work throughout the incredible heat of the entire afternoon.
Everyone felt grungy (Tom later remarked, “I could take a shower in beer right now and feel less sticky.”). That didn’t stop these five; Tom and Jess strolled around the
Fairgrounds meeting voters while Drew, Meredith and Jesse continued trying to engage people at the booth.
By far, the issue on people’s mind was gasoline prices.
Virgil and Republicans have been touting ANWAR as the panacea for high gas prices. It is absurd, but it permits to the GOP to frame the issue as “you’re paying $4 at the pump because Democrats don’t want to hurts a few polar bears.”
The truth is that our current problems are the result of 7 years of mismanagement and bad policy by the Bush Administration, especially the failure to invest both intellectual and actual capital in the development of alternative energy before we were in a crisis.
Not much you can honestly say to folks about bringing gas prices down short-term, and to his credit, Tom did not try to do so. Rather, he took the opportunity to talk about long-term solutions, and how new scientific discoveries would generate jobs and about the importance of leadership in addressing these issues.
Many people seemed willing to chat for a while, and many seemed particularly impressed that Tom was there.
My personal favorite was a lady who insisted I take her picture with Tom, who she thought was very good looking. “Put that in your paper,” she pointed at me and ordered me (actually, I don’t have a paper, but I said I would). She was quite happily boisterous and seemed really receptive to Tom. A minute later she returned to ask what party Tom belonged to. She was crestfallen to hear he was a Democrat and said she’d be voting for Virgil. Tom asked, “Do you want him to erase the picture?
“No, y’all keep the picture,” she said with a big smile and a wave goodbye. I really got a kick out of it.
Tom didn’t agree, but come Nov. 4, when she gets in that voting booth, she’s voting for the nice young man she posed with for a picture. Yes, I predict she will be voting for Tom. And even if she doesn’t, she is the kind of person that Tom is running for, as much as he is running for people like me who are closer to him in political thinking. That woman doesn’t know it, but she needs Tom in Congress as much as all of us do.
Photos follow:

Creigh Deeds introducing Tom at the Strawberry Social. Creigh is running for Governor, but he is not looking past this year, and spoke passionately about the need to make sure Obama and Warner win statewide, and that Democrats take advantage of this great opportunity to pick up Congressional seats in the state.

Supervisor Marvin Moss

Marvin Moss’ beautiful and historic home

Tom chats with a voter and her son at the Uncle Billy’s Day Festival in Altavista. That’s Common Good Fellow Jesse on the left, holding the clipboard.

Tom with some more voters

Drew and Meredith at Tom’s booth at the Festival. Note the numerous bottles of water and Gatorade on the table, which were constantly being consumed.

Here’s Tom with that lovely woman I discuss above. she doesn’t know it yet, but in a little less than five months, she will be voting for a Democrat for the first time.

Packing up at the end of a long day. Left to right is Meredith, Drew and Jesse. That is Jessica Barba, Tom’s communication director, picking up the sign.

Usually, the morning after a primary, I get an explicit fundraising appeal from the Clinton campaign. Usually, it is “from” Maggie Williams, or McAuliff, sometimes Chelsea, sometimes Bill. Sometimes they forward along a message from Hillary, but it is rarely “from” her.

This morning’s email was different in a few ways.

First, the “sender” was Hillary, not a surrogate. Here is the text:

Dear Alan,

Tonight’s victory in Indiana was close, and a margin that narrow means just one thing: every single thing you did to help us win in Indiana helped make the difference.

Every call you made, every friend you spoke to about our campaign, every dollar you contributed made tonight’s victory possible. And I couldn’t be more thankful for your hard work.

Every time we’ve celebrated a victory, we’ve celebrated it together. And tonight is no exception. This victory is your victory, this campaign is your campaign, and your support has been the difference between winning and losing.

Thank you so much for making this campaign possible. Let’s keep making history together.

Sincerely,

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Note that it is all in the past tense, and more of a thank you note, not an active appeal for contributions.

Just to compare, here is the email I received following Pennsylvania:

Folks, I’ve never seen anything like it — thanks to you we are breaking every record we’ve ever had. The number of people coming on our website and supporting Hillary is nothing short of incredible. More than 50,000 people have contributed to the campaign for the very first time in the last 24 hours alone.

If you haven’t gone to the website today and made a contribution, now’s the time to join the wave of grassroots support. And if you have contributed, send this message to your friends and tell them to join you.

Click here to contribute and help Hillary win.

Thank you for making this an incredible day,

Terry McAuliffe, Chairman, Hillary Clinton for President

 

And for good measure, attached to that McAuliffe email was this letter from Hillary:

Dear Alan,

This campaign is your campaign, and the victory we celebrated last night is your victory.

Now, thanks to you, the tide is turning in this race. We never stopped believing in one another, never doubted that we could count on each other. You didn’t quit, and when I’m president, I promise I won’t quit on you.

Now with the next critical contests right around the corner, we need your immediate help to build on the hard-earned momentum of our Pennsylvania victory and continue our success all the way to the nomination.

Contribute today to help carry our momentum to Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, and beyond.

Even though the Obama campaign went for broke trying to knock us out of the race, the people of Pennsylvania had other ideas.

We connected with Pennsylvania families who know they need a strong leader who’s on their side to turn around the battered Bush economy and end President Bush’s disastrous war in Iraq. And as this redefined contest moves across the country, we’ll keep connecting.

I’m in this race to fight for you. And you know you can count on me to keep fighting for you every day. And as long as we keep working together, we’ll wrest control of the White House from the Republicans and defeat John McCain. I’m going to continue to rely on your heart and your spirit every step of the way.

Contribute now, and together, we can carry our winning message to victory.

Thanks to you, we’re on a roll. And with your immediate help, we’ll keep moving forward until we’ve won the Democratic nomination, won the November election, and earned the opportunity to lead America in a new, more promising direction.

Thanks so much for believing in me and believing in how much we can accomplish if we keep pulling together.

Sincerely,

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Times directly asked to contribute right after Pennsylvania: 5

Times directly asked to contribute this morning: 0

As Mark Hannah said, “There are two important things in politics. The first is money. I can’t remember what the second one is.”

Tomorrow’s North Carolina and Indiana primaries will mark the beginning of the final act in the Democratic nomination battle. It will be over within a month at the outside, although I suspect it will be quicker than that.

The polls seem to be saying that Obama will win North Carolina by between 7-12, and Hillary will win with a similar margin in Indiana. I won’t get into the delegate math, which is largely irrelevant at this point anyway. This thing will be decided by some mass movement of remaining super-dels one way of the other, IMHO.

Which way they will move, and when, remain questions.

On the one hand, Obama remains something  a question mark because by all rights, he should have sewn this up long ago, but failed to do it. The unanswered question is, “Why?”

And, as Blake (Alec Baldwin) points out in the film, Gelngarry Glen Ross, “Coffee’s for closers only.”

Still, by virtually every objective measure votes, delegates and numbers of states, he will wind up ahead in this election.

Clinton, on the other hand, is a proven street fighter. She will keep comin’ and comin’ at you, no matter how many times you hit her. It is virtually impossible not to admire this quality in her, even if she disgusts you.

The choice is further complicated by the fact that, as it has turned out, Clinton and Obama have each become leaders of the two key components of the Democratic Party’s nationwide coalition; in Clinton’s case, the white middle class in the Mid-western and Northeastern strongholds, a/k/a Reagan Democrats, and in  Obama’s, African Americans. These are the groups who may stay home on election day if their candidate is not declared the winner.

My own take is that Clinton has to outperform tomorrow if she wants to have a prayer of winning the nomination, and if she fails to do so, we’ll start to see super-dels moving Obama’s way.

First, there is the undeniable fact that Obama is ahead, and while I believe it may sometimes be prudent for party officials to overturn the will of the voters, there ought to be an unassailable reason for doing so. I can think up reasons why Clinton would make a better candidate in the general election than Obama, but all of them are assailable.

Second, there is no denying McCain’s appeal among independents (although I don’t think his reputation as a maverick or a straight-shooter is warranted), and Obama is the tougher candidate on this score. He has shown that he can not only attract independents, but among a highly dissatisfied electorate craving change, he is able to motivate them to get off their independent asses and vote.

Don’t get me wrong. I still think Clinton can beat McCain, but only if she can hold enough traditional Democrats, because with a motivated Democratic base, she can attract enough independents to give her victory.

But she simply cannot afford to alienate any Democratic voters, and she cannot take any of them for granted. And I just don’t see, in the absence of some dynamic-changing event (like a scandal), how she wins without alienating large amounts of Democrats.

Obama’s appeal among independents gives him more wiggle room. If his nomination upsets some Democrats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two critical states, Obama can compensate and still win them.

The one obvious monkey-wrench that can be trown into the works is that Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina. As unlikely as I think that is, if it happened, it would give me pause.

If one needed any confirmation that Virginia is moving from a red state to a purple one – beyond the Democratic Party’s recent dominance in statewide elections, that is — look no further than the speculation surrounding potential vice-presidential candidates from the state.

It is to be expected on the Democratic side. While the result of endless Democratic primary remains, as of this writing and at least in theory, up in the air, one thing is for sure: the top of the ticket will be a Yankee.

The last winning Democratic ticket that did not include a Southerner was Franklin Roosevelt and Henry Wallace in 1940. And while Obama, should he be the nominee, may need to use the VP slot to solidify Ohio and Pennsylvania, two critical states in any Democrat’s path to the White House, should he reach south for help, Sen. James Webb is both a logical and intriguing choice (Gov. Tim Kaine, apparently, is not interested in the slot) who, with his military cred, could help him carry this state and others.

But it was a recent name floated on the GOP side that made me say “Huh?”

In an April 23 column in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Bob Raynor wrote that Congressman Eric Cantor “could make the perfect running mate” for John McCain. He cited his age, 44, and his seat on the economically oriented House Ways and Means Committee as compensating for two of McCain’s perceived weaknesses.

Raynor also cited the fact that Cantor would be the first Jew on a national GOP ticket, which he said would benefit McCain by amplifying the suspicion with which Jewish voters are already thought to regard Obama. (Incidentally, Cantor is the sole Jewish Republican in the House, as well.)

“The congressman from Richmond,” Raynor writes, “would keep Virginia and Florida in the GOP column and could help McCain in Northeastern states, such as New Jersey, where the Arizona Senator appears to be running better than recent Republican presidential candidates.”

Incidentally, Cantor’s wife is, among other things, on the Board of Directors of Media General, which owns the Times Dispatch.

Raynor is probably right that Cantor on the ticket would not hurt in the retirement areas of South Florida, although the Obama camp already seems to be torpedoing any chance it has in the state anyway, and we’re not sure why Cantor would be needed.

As for Virginia, we are baffled what his presence on the ticket would actually do. His district, the Seventh, is already solidly in the GOP corner, and while he is a member of the GOP leadership in the House, he doesn’t seem particularly well known in the state.

And as for New Jersey, we’ll never under the GOP’s fascination with the home of the Boss. Jersey used to swing, but not anymore.

The reason we were baffled, however, is why anyone think to mention Cantor in the first place? This isn’t a judgment on Cantor’s abilities, about which we know little and could care less, but rather on whether he is ready to run for national office.

For McCain to win in the fall, he will need to distance himself from George W. Bush, the most unpopular president, at least according to Gallup, in living memory. A running mate who voted with Bush some 95% of the time is probably not a good way to accomplish this.

Nor I see Cantor’s youth as a positive.

It’s not like voters will average his and McCain’s ages to find a greater comfort level. McCain’s advanced years cause concern because they create the perception he may not survive the entire term. This problem is not alleviated by youth on the other spot on the tick – it’s not like voters will average their ages. In fact, voters will more than likely be trying to imagine McCain’s running-mate as a president in his or her own right.

Cantor does not meet this test. He makes Dan Quayle seem like Abraham Lincoln.

I wish I could even say that Cantor’s name was an interesting one to float, but I can’t, outside of the thought that McCain might need a Virginian, even one as unready for national office as Cantor, to hold on to a state that has not voted for a Democrat since 1964.

Bush’s disapproval number of 69% set a new record. The old record was 67% by Harry Truman in 1952.

Disapproval of Bush breaks record - USATODAY.com

BTW, besides losing the presidential election in 1952, we lost 2 Senate seats and 21 House seats.

… on HR 2082 to a small paper in Southside, The Southside Messenger. For those of you who have not memorized the actual legislation behind Congressional bill numbers, HR 2082 was the law that prohibited torture, including waterboarding. The President vetoed it, and the House was trying to override the veto.

Goode, of course, voted against. Here is why, in his own words:

Some people don’t understand how this works. We vote on the entire bill, not on each page. I decide if the package is best for Southside Virginia and vote in the interest of Southside.

I have often suspected Virgil did not care about us up here in the C’ville area or vote in our interests, but it is still surprising to hear him confirm it.

From InRich.com:

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is going back to school — sort of.

Virginia’s top elected official is heading to Charlottesville on Monday to address Larry Sabato’s “Introduction to American Politics” class at the University of Virginia. The guest lecture will take place at 3 p.m. in Wilson Hall Auditorium.